Web3: Foreign Media Reports that the Altcoin Market in 2026 May Depend on ISM Recovery

Coin World reports:

Foreign media cites analysts' views that whether the altcoin market can see a broader rise in 2026 depends not only on the cryptocurrency sector but also on whether the U.S. manufacturing sector's sentiment improves. The article mentions that in past cycles when altcoins significantly outperformed Bitcoin, it was often accompanied by a strengthening of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and a rapid decline in Bitcoin's dominance.

This Cycle's Rotation is Clearly Weaker than the Previous Two

Historically, there were phases in 2017 and 2021 when funds shifted massively from Bitcoin to altcoins. In 2017, Bitcoin's dominance fell from about 95% to 35%; in 2021, it dropped from about 73% to 39%.

However, in 2025, this indicator only fell from about 66% to 57%. This means that the window for altcoins to outperform Bitcoin is shorter, and the market has not seen the same broad rally as before.

ISM 58 Seen as a Key Signal

Analysts view the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index as an important observation point for the next round of altcoin trends. According to their analysis, in 2017 and around 2020, when the ISM broke above 58, the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin significantly improved, while Bitcoin's dominance also saw a rapid decline.

In contrast, since 2021, the ISM has mostly remained below 50, reflecting weak manufacturing sentiment. The article suggests that this period corresponds to the continued underperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.

The article also mentions that despite recent geopolitical tensions, high oil prices, corporate sell-offs, and a theft incident involving about $130 million in cold wallets, Bitcoin's overall trend remains relatively stable. This has been interpreted by some analysts as a sign that selling pressure may be gradually weakening and buying interest is returning.

Asian Export Data Seen as Leading Indicators

In addition to U.S. data, South Korean exports and Taiwan's export prices are also listed as leading indicators. This is because these two economies play a significant role in the semiconductor and technology component supply chain, and changes in their exports are often used to observe whether global manufacturing demand is recovering.

The article states that there have been signs of strengthening in these two indicators recently. If this trend continues, it may drive the ISM to continue rising and approach the 58 level that previously corresponded to expanded altcoin rotations.

Regarding specific cryptocurrencies, analysts are more optimistic about projects with strong fundamentals rather than a synchronized rise across the entire altcoin sector. The article highlights Ethereum and Solana as potentially benefiting assets, provided that Bitcoin's upward momentum slows and market risk appetite continues to improve.

Another analyst mentioned that the current total market capitalization of the broader altcoin market is about $161 billion, close to the support range of $160 billion to $165 billion; if this range holds, the upper target range may look towards $320 billion to $340 billion, with deeper support around $124 billion.

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