September Rate Hike Probability at 52.4%, Freeze at 47.6%

The judgment of the interest rate futures market regarding the U.S. September benchmark interest rate path is divided. The probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged is 47.6%, while the probability of a 0.25% point increase is 52.4%. According to the CME FedWatch, as of the 4th, the interest rate futures market reflected a higher likelihood of an increase rather than maintaining the current rate for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September. The probability of the benchmark interest rate being maintained until the October meeting is 34.9%, while the cumulative probability of a 0.25% point increase is 51.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 0.50% point increase is 13.9%. This assessment was released just before the announcement of the U.S. August employment situation report. Non-farm employment is a key indicator that the Fed monitors alongside inflation, and strong employment could imply sustained inflationary pressures. If the likelihood of a rate hike increases, it could alter the flow of the dollar and bond yields, and also impact the prices of risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The rate decision for the September FOMC will be announced on September 16 at 2 PM Eastern Time.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.