分析:链上指标显示比特币或已在11月见底,仍存较大上行空间
BlockBeats 消息,1 月 6 日,链上数据提供商 Glassnode 指出,一项关键指标显示,比特币在去年 11 月下旬跌至约 8 万美元时,可能已经形成阶段性甚至周期性底部。
数据显示,11 月 24 日,短期持币者(持有期少于 155 天)「盈利供应 / 亏损供应」比率降至 0.013。历史上该指标每次触及这一水平,均对应市场重要底部,包括 2011、2015、2018 和 2022 年。
当时,短期持币者亏损供应升至 245 万枚 BTC,为 FTX 崩盘以来最高水平;而盈利供应仅约 3 万枚 BTC。进入 2026 年后,比特币反弹至约 9.4 万美元,累计涨幅超 7%。同期,短期持币者亏损供应回落至 190 万枚 BTC,盈利供应回升至 85 万枚 BTC,比率升至约 0.45。
Glassnode 指出,历史上该比率接近 1 并突破后,比特币往往进入持续上涨阶段,而真正的顶部通常要等该比率接近 100 才会出现。当前指标仍远低于这一水平,暗示比特币后续仍存在较大上行空间。
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