XRP Price Hits $2.29 After SEC Deal, Faces $2.38 Barrier Before Possible Drop

On May 9 XRP surged 8% in the past 24 hours, driven by broader market momentum and Ripple’s partial settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Ripple agreed to pay $50 million of the original $125 million penalty, while the remaining $75 million will be returned. This development lifted XRP’s price to $2.29. Despite the rally, XRP faces a strong resistance at $2.38, a level it has failed to break for more than seven months. If short-term holders choose to sell now, the upward momentum could weaken. This may trap XRP in a consolidation zone between $2.38 and $2.12, delaying any breakout. However, if XRP clears the $2.38 resistance and turns it into a support level, it could trigger a sustained upward move. A successful breakout may push the price toward $2.56, breaking the current bearish-neutral pattern. Such a move would reflect growing market confidence and may set the stage for further gains. XRP Price Faces Pressure as Short-Term Holders Take Profits Meanwhile, XRP investors are showing bearish behavior, especially among short-term holders (STHs). The current value of the MVRV Long/Short Difference—a key on-chain indicator—has dropped to its lowest point in 31 months. MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value. It compares the market price of a token to the average price at which holders bought it. A low Long/Short MVRV Difference means short-term holders, who typically sell quickly when in profit, are seeing gains. This often signals that many of them might sell now to lock in profits. If that happens, it can put downward pressure on XRP’s price and limit its ability to move higher. Short-term holders usually react fast to price increases, and this behavior can prevent the token from breaking through key resistance zones. Selling Pressure Builds as Profits Increase As short-term holders gain more profits, the risk of sudden selling increases. If XRP experiences any short-term pullback, many holders might exit their positions. This wave of speculative selling could push prices lower or keep XRP stuck in its current range. Technical analysis also shows mixed signals. The Ichimoku Cloud, a popular tool used to identify trends and reversals, currently shows bearish signs. This means the overall market sentiment still leans toward a downtrend. However, the XRP candlestick pattern on the daily chart is nearing a potential breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud. If the price closes above the cloud, it would mark a bullish shift. This breakout could support further price gains and allow XRP to test higher resistance levels. XRP Forms Bear Flag With Possible 28% Drop Ahead On May 9, 2025, the XRP/USDT daily chart on Bybit shows a bear flag pattern forming after a sharp upward move. A bear flag is a bearish continuation pattern where prices temporarily rise inside a parallel channel after a steep drop, then potentially fall again once the flag breaks down. If this bear flag confirms with a breakdown below the lower trendline, XRP could drop by around 28%, targeting the $1.71 level. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $2.2082, and XRP is still trading above it. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, is at 65.29, suggesting XRP is close to overbought territory. If selling pressure increases and the RSI drops, this could further support a bearish move. Volume remains moderate at 45.87 million, but a sudden spike in sell volume could confirm the pattern breakdown. Ripple Ends SEC Lawsuit, Recovers $75M and Plans Expansion On May 8, Ripple officially ended its long-running legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company agreed to pay $50 million of the original $125 million penalty, while the SEC will return the remaining $75 million. Both sides will drop their appeals if the court removes the injunction against Ripple. This resolution marks the close of a key case that shaped the regulatory outlook on XRP, which now leans toward being treated as a commodity. As a result, speculation around a potential XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) has grown, with prediction markets placing a 39% approval chance by July. Ripple appears set to accelerate its growth. The firm recently acquired brokerage Hidden Road for $1.2 billion and attempted a $5 billion deal with USDC issuer Circle. Although Circle declined the offer, Ripple is likely to pursue further acquisitions both in the U.S. and abroad.