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Wintermute: Market Structure is Improving, Mainstream Tokens are No Longer Fragile
BlockBeats News, December 2nd, Wintermute released a market report stating that the interest rate hike expectations by the Bank of Japan have completely erased the previous week's stable situation, triggering widespread deleveraging. The market structure has been cleanly reset: leverage has significantly decreased, funding has returned to neutral, and spot participation has increased significantly. Now everything is trading according to macro logic, but the major currency pairs no longer appear as fragile.
From a market structure perspective, the situation is actually improving: the basis has fallen to a cyclical low, with Bitcoin's 90-day annualized basis close to 4% to 5%, and Ethereum close to 3% to 4%, reflecting continued leverage long positioning. The total open interest of perpetual contracts has decreased from around $230 billion in early October to around $135 billion currently, clearing a significant amount of excess leverage and reducing the likelihood of further forced liquidations. The spot trading volume share has increased, and considering the Thanksgiving holiday impact, the depth of spot supply has been better than expected. Lower leverage ratios, negative funding, and healthier spot participation are typically needed before the market can undergo a restructuring phase following macroeconomic stability.
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