Which Funds Are Still Buying After 13F Disclosures?

Smart money either plays dead or takes advantage of the situation to increase positions.

Written by: Blockchain Knight

Recently, various funds have disclosed their 13F filings, providing clearer insights into the Bitcoin ETF holdings of several major institutions.

The calmest are two sovereign funds from Abu Dhabi. Mubadala holds 14.72 million shares of IBIT, while the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority holds 8.22 million shares, with both funds making no changes in the second quarter.

However, due to the decline in Bitcoin prices, the market value of Mubadala's holdings dropped from $566 million to $490 million, and Abu Dhabi's from $316 million to $274 million. Standing still during this time is actually good news.

Moreover, there is better news as major banks have increased their positions in Q2. JPMorgan raised its spot Bitcoin ETF holdings from 8.46 million shares to 10.62 million shares, an increase of 25.5%. Morgan Stanley also increased its ETF holdings by 3.04 million shares to approximately 16.5 million shares, a 23% increase compared to Q1.

UBS also increased its ordinary ETF shares by 13%, but what’s more noteworthy is the options side, where the call options for IBIT surged from 80,000 shares to 1.95 million shares, while put options dropped from 303,000 to 143,000.

This is a significant change, but the 13F only discloses long positions and held options, while short positions and sold options are not reported, making it impossible to determine UBS's net direction.

Although institutions have increased their positions, the entire Bitcoin ETF market saw an outflow of about $4.9 billion in Q2, with $2 billion concentrated in the last few trading days of June.

However, entering August, the situation improved temporarily, with net inflows of approximately $850 million over five consecutive days in the first week of August. Yet, last week saw a return to net outflows, breaking the streak of gains, with Bitcoin spot ETFs experiencing a total net outflow of $390 million, recording inflows on only one of the five trading days.

Bitcoin prices are currently hovering around $63,000, down nearly 30% from the beginning of the year and exactly halved from last October's historical high. Correspondingly, the total assets under management of Bitcoin ETFs have dropped from over $116.7 billion to about $95.5 billion.

The market seems to have reached a critical point. As of last week, data showed that the value of open Bitcoin contracts was $47.88 billion, while leveraged funds on the CME held long positions of 5,000 Bitcoin futures contracts and short positions of 12,000 contracts, with the two differing by more than double.

However, relying solely on the leverage numbers cannot determine the trend direction, as there are many arbitrage positions held by ETF holders on the CME, making it seem like the longs are in a bit of an awkward position.

What’s worth looking forward to is that this week, Trump will meet with the SEC Chair and CFTC Chair at the White House along with executives from Coinbase, a16z, Kalshi, and Paradigm. Media predicts that the main topic of the meeting will be to discuss the clarity bill, especially since a key voting period is approaching in a month.

At the same time, the much-discussed SEC and CFTC are expected to announce exemption policies and industry regulations, which may also depend on the outcome of this meeting.

The market currently resembles a calm sea, appearing tranquil on the surface, but the depths may be turbulent. From the surface, we are likely only seeing abstract facts and data. Last week's CPI data failed to stir up a storm, so the remaining focus will be on changes within the industry itself.

Smart money either plays dead or takes advantage of the situation to increase positions. Now, we will see how this week’s ETF performance and the final chapter of this meeting unfold.