US Gas Hub Price Forecast at $10, AI Power Costs Rising?

Some natural gas hub prices in the United States could triple if the demand for power from AI data centers coincides with an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The trend of hyperscalers like Microsoft ($MSFT), Amazon ($AMZN), and Meta ($META) using natural gas power for AI infrastructure has sparked a debate over cost burdens.

Noreva has stated that if supply growth slows, LNG exports increase, and power demand rises, some US gas hub prices could exceed $10 per million BTU. TechCrunch reported on the 14th that this analysis suggests the risk of price increases may first appear at regional hubs rather than the national average.

Peter Gardett, CEO of Noreva, said in an interview with TechCrunch, "Everyone in the energy market has become accustomed to the idea that gas prices cannot rise." This contrasts with the existing perception that gas supply in the US is sufficient; in certain regions, demand and exports could once again shake prices.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average price at Henry Hub is projected to be $3.44 per million BTU in 2026 and $3.31 in 2027, based on the short-term outlook as of August 11. The EIA expects LNG exports to reach 17.4 Bcf per day in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf in 2027, with natural gas storage levels estimated at 3,985 Bcf by the end of October 2026.

The EIA's baseline forecast suggests that national prices will remain low. However, the risk identified by Noreva is not the average price at Henry Hub but rather the price differentials at regional hubs.

Natural gas hubs are trading points where production areas, consumption areas, and pipelines intersect. Even if the national average price stabilizes, spot prices can vary based on pipeline bottlenecks, generation demand, and access to LNG terminals in specific regions.

AI data centers are changing how they secure power. Large cloud companies are not just purchasing electricity from the grid; they are also looking to secure stable power sources by co-locating power plants and data centers or entering into long-term power contracts.

Meta has partnered with Blue Owl Capital to develop the Louisiana Hyperion data center campus, committing approximately $27 billion (about 38.3 trillion won) in total development costs. Entergy Louisiana has stated that Meta will support and procure 7.5 GW of high-efficiency natural gas generation along with additional solar and battery resources.

Chevron is collaborating with Microsoft and Engine No. 1 to promote co-located power generation for data centers. Chevron has indicated that commercial terms related to exclusive negotiations have not yet been finalized.

Co-located power generation involves placing power generation facilities near data centers to supply electricity directly. This can reduce waiting times for grid access and transmission bottlenecks, but if the generation fuel is sourced from the local gas market, it could lead to disputes over gas prices and electricity rates.

The key issue is not the gas price itself but the burden of location. While having a power plant nearby may reduce the perception of grid access burdens, an increase in LNG exports and the alleviation of regional pipeline bottlenecks could link previously cheap local gas prices to broader market prices.

In this case, there could be pressure on the electricity costs for AI data centers and cloud operating expenses. We previously reported that the expansion of AI facility investments has created a divide in cloud growth and cost burdens.

The connection to the cryptocurrency market is more indirect, primarily through electricity costs. In some regions, AI data centers and Bitcoin (BTC) mining facilities may compete for power, location, and cooling resources, raising the possibility of indirect impacts through electricity costs.

The industry is defending against concerns about cost pass-throughs. Josh Levi, president and CEO of the Data Center Coalition, stated in a July 23 statement that the data center industry would pay the full energy costs and invest in local jobs and workforce development.

Entergy also explained that large power-demand companies should fairly bear the infrastructure costs they require. This indicates that the debate over data center electricity procurement is evolving from a simple corporate cost issue to a burden on local electricity rates and infrastructure investments.

Concerns from consumers remain. Consumer Reports found in a November 2025 survey that 78% of American adults are worried that new data centers will raise electricity bills. While this survey does not provide evidence of the actual scale of cost pass-throughs, how natural gas prices vary regionally is expected to depend on LNG exports, storage levels, pipelines, and the structure of data center power contracts.