Predicted Market Trading Volume Reaches $50.6 Billion in July, Setting a New Record

In July 2026, the total trading volume of the predicted market reached approximately $50.6 billion, setting a new historical high, primarily influenced by the World Cup. Kalshi accounted for the largest share with about $37.7 billion in trading volume, a 14% increase from June. Polymarket's trading volume was around $7.9 billion, down 26% from June; however, its flagship Polymarket US saw a counter-trend growth of 54%, reaching approximately $5 billion. The trading volume in July was almost entirely driven by the World Cup, which started on June 11 and concluded on July 19, particularly the championship match between Spain and Argentina, where Kalshi's related market saw an influx of about $1.9 billion, and Polymarket's "World Cup Champion" market accumulated about $4 billion in bets. However, after the event concluded, the excitement quickly faded, with the open contracts on the three major platforms dropping from about $2 billion at the beginning of July to about $1.2 billion by the end of the month. This data reflects the characteristics of the predicted market: trading volume is highly correlated with significant events, and global focal events like the World Cup can bring in massive trading in a short period, while open positions significantly decline after the events end.

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