Jiang Zhuoer: This round of the Bitcoin bear market may bottom out in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a target range of $42,000 to $44,000

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liebit mining pool, stated that the current mNAV of Strategy has fallen to 0.72, close to the low of 0.7 set during the last bear market in May 2022. Based on recent market sentiment events such as the decoupling of STRC, it is judged that we are currently in the bottom area of the mNAV for this cycle. mNAV often leads BTC prices to bottom out by about 6 months, and based on the "four-year cycle" and the decreasing volatility model, this round of Bitcoin bear market may bottom out between October and December 2026, with a target price range of $42,000 to $44,000. Jiang Zhuoer indicated that his recent short-term strategy remains focused on selling spot and shorting, and will switch to buying spot and going long once the expected bottom arrives.