Japanese Yen moves away from one-month low touched against USD on Monday

By: bitcoin ethereum news|2025/05/14 11:30:04
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The Japanese Yen strengthens against the USD for the second straight day on Wednesday. The prospects for further policy normalization by the BoJ continue to underpin the JPY. Softer US CPI lifts bets for two Fed rate cuts in 2025, weighing on the USD and USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the front foot against its American counterpart for the second straight day on Wednesday and reacts little to the mostly in-line Producer Price Index (PPI). The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida’s hawkish comments on Tuesday keep the door open for further policy normalization and continue to act as a tailwind for the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, continues to be undermined by Tuesday’s softer US consumer inflation figures, which lifted bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at least two times this year. This is seen as another factor exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the latest optimism over a US-China tariff truce for 90 days remains supportive of the upbeat market mood. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the safe-haven JPY. Nevertheless, the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations suggest that the path of least resistance for the lower-yielding JPY is to the upside and support prospects for a further depreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic data from the US, traders will take cues from speeches by influential FOMC members. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment could provide some impetus to the currency pair. Japanese Yen draws some support from the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations Data released this Wednesday showed that Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% in April, and the yearly rate came in at 4%, down from 4.2% in the previous month. The Japanese Yen, however, moves little after the data and draws support from expectations for more rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. In fact, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated on Tuesday that the central bank will keep raising rates if the economy and prices improve as projected. Japan’s economic growth is expected to slow to around its potential before resuming moderate growth as overseas economies recover, Uchida added further. On the other hand, traders pared their bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve amid easing recession fears. Investors, however, are still pricing in 56 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, and the bets were reaffirmed by softer US consumer inflation figures released on Tuesday. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged lower to the 2.3% YoY rate in April from 2.4% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% on a yearly basis, matching consensus estimates. This keeps the US Dollar depressed below its highest level since April 10 touched earlier this week, and exerts some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. However, the US-China trade deal optimism might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the safe-haven JPY. US President Donald Trump said in a Fox News interview that the relationship with China is excellent. This comes on top of positive news from the US-China tariff negotiations over the weekend, where both countries agreed to pause the trade war for 90 days and bring down reciprocal duties. USD/JPY technical setup backs prospects for the emergence of dip-buyers From a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and positive oscillators on the daily chart favor bullish traders. Hence, any subsequent slide below the 147.00 mark might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 146.60-146.55 area, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the strong recovery from the year-to-date low touched in April. A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the USD/JPY pair to the 146.00 mark en route to the 145.40 region (38.2% Fibo. level) and the 145.00 psychological mark. This is closely followed by the 144.80-144.75 area, or the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which, if broken decisively, would negate the near-term positive bias. On the flip side, the 147.65 zone now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the USD/JPY pair could climb to the 148.00 round figure en route to the 148.25-148.30 region and over a one-month peak, around the 148.65 area touched on Monday. Some follow-through buying beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and lift spot prices beyond the 149.00 mark, towards the 149.65-149.70 area and eventually to the 150.00 psychological mark. Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in. Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-moves-away-from-one-month-low-touched-against-usd-on-monday-202505140214

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Before using Musk's "Western WeChat" X Chat, you need to understand these three questions

The X Chat will be available for download on the App Store this Friday. The media has already covered the feature list, including self-destructing messages, screenshot prevention, 481-person group chats, Grok integration, and registration without a phone number, positioning it as the "Western WeChat." However, there are three questions that have hardly been addressed in any reports.


There is a sentence on X's official help page that is still hanging there: "If malicious insiders or X itself cause encrypted conversations to be exposed through legal processes, both the sender and receiver will be completely unaware."


Question One: Is this encryption the same as Signal's encryption?


No. The difference lies in where the keys are stored.


In Signal's end-to-end encryption, the keys never leave your device. X, the court, or any external party does not hold your keys. Signal's servers have nothing to decrypt your messages; even if they were subpoenaed, they could only provide registration timestamps and last connection times, as evidenced by past subpoena records.


X Chat uses the Juicebox protocol. This solution divides the key into three parts, each stored on three servers operated by X. When recovering the key with a PIN code, the system retrieves these three shards from X's servers and recombines them. No matter how complex the PIN code is, X is the actual custodian of the key, not the user.


This is the technical background of the "help page sentence": because the key is on X's servers, X has the ability to respond to legal processes without the user's knowledge. Signal does not have this capability, not because of policy, but because it simply does not have the key.


The following illustration compares the security mechanisms of Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and X Chat along six dimensions. X Chat is the only one of the four where the platform holds the key and the only one without Forward Secrecy.


The significance of Forward Secrecy is that even if a key is compromised at a certain point in time, historical messages cannot be decrypted because each message has a unique key. Signal's Double Ratchet protocol automatically updates the key after each message, a mechanism lacking in X Chat.


After analyzing the X Chat architecture in June 2025, Johns Hopkins University cryptology professor Matthew Green commented, "If we judge XChat as an end-to-end encryption scheme, this seems like a pretty game-over type of vulnerability." He later added, "I would not trust this any more than I trust current unencrypted DMs."


From a September 2025 TechCrunch report to being live in April 2026, this architecture saw no changes.


In a February 9, 2026 tweet, Musk pledged to undergo rigorous security tests of X Chat before its launch on X Chat and to open source all the code.



As of the April 17 launch date, no independent third-party audit has been completed, there is no official code repository on GitHub, the App Store's privacy label reveals X Chat collects five or more categories of data including location, contact info, and search history, directly contradicting the marketing claim of "No Ads, No Trackers."


Issue 2: Does Grok know what you're messaging in private?


Not continuous monitoring, but a clear access point.


For every message on X Chat, users can long-press and select "Ask Grok." When this button is clicked, the message is delivered to Grok in plaintext, transitioning from encrypted to unencrypted at this stage.


This design is not a vulnerability but a feature. However, X Chat's privacy policy does not state whether this plaintext data will be used for Grok's model training or if Grok will store this conversation content. By actively clicking "Ask Grok," users are voluntarily removing the encryption protection of that message.


There is also a structural issue: How quickly will this button shift from an "optional feature" to a "default habit"? The higher the quality of Grok's replies, the more frequently users will rely on it, leading to an increase in the proportion of messages flowing out of encryption protection. The actual encryption strength of X Chat, in the long run, depends not only on the design of the Juicebox protocol but also on the frequency of user clicks on "Ask Grok."


Issue 3: Why is there no Android version?


X Chat's initial release only supports iOS, with the Android version simply stating "coming soon" without a timeline.


In the global smartphone market, Android holds about 73%, while iOS holds about 27% (IDC/Statista, 2025). Of WhatsApp's 3.14 billion monthly active users, 73% are on Android (according to Demand Sage). In India, WhatsApp covers 854 million users, with over 95% Android penetration. In Brazil, there are 148 million users, with 81% on Android, and in Indonesia, there are 112 million users, with 87% on Android.



WhatsApp's dominance in the global communication market is built on Android. Signal, with a monthly active user base of around 85 million, also relies mainly on privacy-conscious users in Android-dominant countries.


X Chat circumvented this battlefield, with two possible interpretations. One is technical debt; X Chat is built with Rust, and achieving cross-platform support is not easy, so prioritizing iOS may be an engineering constraint. The other is a strategic choice; with iOS holding a market share of nearly 55% in the U.S., X's core user base being in the U.S., prioritizing iOS means focusing on their core user base rather than engaging in direct competition with Android-dominated emerging markets and WhatsApp.


These two interpretations are not mutually exclusive, leading to the same result: X Chat's debut saw it willingly forfeit 73% of the global smartphone user base.


Elon Musk's "Super App"


This matter has been described by some: X Chat, along with X Money and Grok, forms a trifecta creating a closed-loop data system parallel to the existing infrastructure, similar in concept to the WeChat ecosystem. This assessment is not new, but with X Chat's launch, it's worth revisiting the schematic.



X Chat generates communication metadata, including information on who is talking to whom, for how long, and how frequently. This data flows into X's identity system. Part of the message content goes through the Ask Grok feature and enters Grok's processing chain. Financial transactions are handled by X Money: external public testing was completed in March, opening to the public in April, enabling fiat peer-to-peer transfers via Visa Direct. A senior Fireblocks executive confirmed plans for cryptocurrency payments to go live by the end of the year, holding money transmitter licenses in over 40 U.S. states currently.


Every WeChat feature operates within China's regulatory framework. Musk's system operates within Western regulatory frameworks, but he also serves as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is not a WeChat replica; it is a reenactment of the same logic under different political conditions.


The difference is that WeChat has never explicitly claimed to be "end-to-end encrypted" on its main interface, whereas X Chat does. "End-to-end encryption" in user perception means that no one, not even the platform, can see your messages. X Chat's architectural design does not meet this user expectation, but it uses this term.


X Chat consolidates the three data lines of "who this person is, who they are talking to, and where their money comes from and goes to" in one company's hands.


The help page sentence has never been just technical instructions.


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