Institutional Outlook on US September Non-Farm Payrolls Report: Employment Market Weak Trend Likely to Continue, But Collapse Talk Premature
BlockBeats News, November 20th, the first non-farm payroll report after the shutdown will be released tonight, and the views of various institutions are as follows:
Rockefeller: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 50,000, indicating that the employment market remains stable. Previously released labor data has shown a clear weakening trend;
Indeed Hiring Lab: In comparison to previous reports, it is not believed that there will be significant changes in the September non-farm employment report, and the current weak state of the labor market will continue;
Pantheon Macroeconomics: Any data that seems unsatisfactory at the moment may continue to ferment due to a six-week data vacuum period, and the negative impact of non-farm data may be amplified;
Reuters Survey: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 50,000. Economists believe that the data in August was suppressed by seasonal abnormal factors, and it may be revised upwards based on historical trends;
Loyola Marymount University: The labor market is clearly slowing down, and it is widely expected that this trend will continue. The labor market will hover at the bottom for a while but will not fall into a recession;
Nationwide: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 40,000 to 50,000, further confirming that the summer weakness in the job market has continued into the fall, with companies maintaining a stance of not hiring or firing;
Nomura Credit: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 55,000, and the unemployment rate will be recorded at 4.3%. The labor market seems to be cooling down but has not collapsed, still exhibiting a situation of "low hiring, low firing";
Standard Chartered Bank: It is expected that the non-farm employment data from September to November will be "very weak", seasonal hiring may be very weak, and layoffs will be unusually high. This should be enough to convince the Fed's moderates to lean towards the rate-cut camp;
Goldman Sachs: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 80,000, and the unemployment rate will be recorded at 4.3%. The risk lies in the unannounced October data, with an expected decrease of 50,000 in October non-farm employment;
Union Bank: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by about 40,000, and the market reaction may be smaller than usual because more information about the job market can already be obtained from data released by private institutions;
RSM Consulting: The September data along with revisions for July and August will show that the employment outlook is slightly better than generally expected, but far from impressive. The labor market is still struggling to support itself, and so is the overall U.S. economy.
(Note: The market consensus expectation is that U.S. non-farm employment in September will increase by 50,000, and the unemployment rate will be recorded at 4.3%.) (Jin10)
You may also like

Ethereum 2029 Strawmap Guide: Ultra-Fast Consensus, Native Privacy, and the "Acceleration Variables" Brought by AI

Altcoin ETF Surge: SOL and XRP Inflows Total $23 Million as Institutions Diversify
Key Takeaways Institutional interest in altcoin ETFs is expanding, with SOL and XRP showing significant inflows on March…

Vitalik Drops Ethereum Endgame Bombshell: ETH USD to $3,000?
Key Takeaways Vitalik Buterin introduces the “Sanctuary Tech” manifesto to address Ethereum’s non-financial limitations. A current lack of…

Exclusive: Yuliya Barabash Predicts the Most Regulated Could Be the Biggest Crypto Winners
Key Takeaways The aftermath of FTX and Celsius collapses has ushered a new regulatory era, reshaping the crypto…

iPhone Crypto Wallets Under Threat from State-Grade Malware
Key Takeaways: The Coruna exploit kit exploits 23 iOS vulnerabilities, threatening iPhone users’ crypto wallets. Initially state-level surveillance,…

Bitcoin Nears Two-Year ‘Make-or-Break’ Resistance: Future Implications
Key Takeaways Bitcoin’s price is approaching key resistance levels around $73,000, observed for the first time since early…

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analyst Says $220,000 BTC Is Coming — But Only After This Happens
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin may experience a significant drop before the next major rally begins, potentially revisiting the $50,000…

Solana Price Outlook: All Eyes Focused on $95 — Could This Trigger New SOL Highs?
Key Takeaways Solana’s price is approaching a pivotal $95 mark, which may indicate potential support or resistance for…

Advanced AI Predicts Future Prices for XRP, Solana, and Cardano by 2026
Key Takeaways: Claude AI predicts significant price increases for XRP, Solana, and Cardano by the end of 2026.…

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Fed Rate Cut Hints Propel Bitcoin Beyond $72K — Is a Mega Rally Starting?
Key Takeaways Bitcoin surged past the $72,000 mark, ignited by potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The rally…

XRP Price Prediction: Ripple Just Turned to AI to Protect the XRP Ledger — Is This a Security Game-Changer?
Key Takeaways: Ripple is leveraging AI to enhance the security of the XRP Ledger after identifying vulnerabilities. AI…

Institutional Accumulation: US Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy Drive $1.2B in Demand Surge
Key Takeaways: Institutional investments in Bitcoin have surged with US Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy leading the charge, absorbing…

South Korea Tax Service Leaks Seed Phrases, Loses $4.8 Million in Seized Crypto
Key Takeaways The National Tax Service of South Korea inadvertently leaked private keys in a press release, resulting…

Current Crypto Predictions: XRP, Bitcoin, and Ethereum on the Rise
Key Takeaways Despite geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin hits a remarkable $71,500, reflecting market adaptability. Passage of the U.S. CLARITY…

Why is Crypto Rising? Bitcoin Reclaims $71,000 as Market Moves Past Middle East Tensions
Key Takeaways Bitcoin recovers to $71,000 despite Middle East geopolitical tensions, signaling market resilience. Institutional investors played a…

CLARITY Act News: Trump Administration Confronts Banks Over Crypto Access
Key Takeaways President Donald Trump warns banks to stop restricting crypto or face repercussions. The CLARITY Act, which…

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Veteran Trader Warns Final Flush Is Approaching — Is Another Drop Imminent?
Key Takeaways The current market analysis suggests that Bitcoin may experience another significant drop, termed the “final flush,”…

Solana Price Prediction: SOL Just Reached a Critical Level — Is $100 in Sight?
Key Takeaways Solana has bounced back to a crucial price range, reigniting discussions about its potential to reach…
Ethereum 2029 Strawmap Guide: Ultra-Fast Consensus, Native Privacy, and the "Acceleration Variables" Brought by AI
Altcoin ETF Surge: SOL and XRP Inflows Total $23 Million as Institutions Diversify
Key Takeaways Institutional interest in altcoin ETFs is expanding, with SOL and XRP showing significant inflows on March…
Vitalik Drops Ethereum Endgame Bombshell: ETH USD to $3,000?
Key Takeaways Vitalik Buterin introduces the “Sanctuary Tech” manifesto to address Ethereum’s non-financial limitations. A current lack of…
Exclusive: Yuliya Barabash Predicts the Most Regulated Could Be the Biggest Crypto Winners
Key Takeaways The aftermath of FTX and Celsius collapses has ushered a new regulatory era, reshaping the crypto…
iPhone Crypto Wallets Under Threat from State-Grade Malware
Key Takeaways: The Coruna exploit kit exploits 23 iOS vulnerabilities, threatening iPhone users’ crypto wallets. Initially state-level surveillance,…
Bitcoin Nears Two-Year ‘Make-or-Break’ Resistance: Future Implications
Key Takeaways Bitcoin’s price is approaching key resistance levels around $73,000, observed for the first time since early…