Hong Hao: Bitcoin's Scarcity and Decentralized Credit System Support Long-Term Value, Potential Cycle Window in Q3 and Q4

On July 31, economist Hong Hao shared his views on Bitcoin's long-term value and market cycles at a Binance offline event. Hong pointed out that Bitcoin's fixed supply cap of 21 million coins determines its scarcity, establishing a value foundation distinct from traditional fiat currency systems. He mentioned that both Bitcoin and gold possess scarcity and long-term value storage attributes, but their sources of credit differ; gold relies on thousands of years of human credit accumulation, while Bitcoin forms a new credit system through decentralized networks and a fixed supply mechanism. In the long term, gold targets $10,000, while Bitcoin aims for $1,000,000. Regarding Bitcoin's cycles, Hong stated that its limited supply gives it a cyclical nature. According to the team's cycle model, the alternating period in Q3 and Q4 this year may welcome an important time window for a new cycle. He advised investors to remain patient and wait for further clarity on market uncertainties.

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