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    3. Goldman Sachs Interprets Minimax Founder's Meeting: MiniMax Valuation Recovery, Target Price Up Over 3 Times

    Goldman Sachs Interprets Minimax Founder's Meeting: MiniMax Valuation Recovery, Target Price Up Over 3 Times

    By: rootdata|2026/07/27 03:48:34
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    TL;DR
    · Goldman Sachs reiterates MiniMax buy rating, with a 12-month target price of HKD 860, representing a 331.5% upside from the closing price on July 23.
    · This bet is based on M3 call volume, M3 Pro inference costs, H3 multimodal new products, and expectations for the Hong Kong Stock Connect.
    · MiniMax still needs to prove ARR growth and profitability path, with cash burn, model competition, and content risks being the main boundaries.


    Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its "buy" rating for MiniMax Group (0100.HK) around July 24, setting a 12-month target price of HKD 860. Based on the closing price of HKD 199.30 on July 23, this target price corresponds to an upside of approximately 331.5%.
    ![](https://public.chaincatcher.info/upload/news/202607/c015a82c46b64042afd2224798dff78f.png)
    > Bullish/Bearish/Benchmark Scenarios
    MiniMax is a Chinese large model company that went public in Hong Kong in January this year, listed under the abbreviation MINIMAX-WP, with an IPO price of HKD 165. On July 24, the company's stock price closed at HKD 196, still significantly below Goldman Sachs' target price.
    The most newsworthy aspect of this report is not just the aggressive target price but also the comparison of MiniMax within the valuation differentiation of Chinese AI model companies. Goldman Sachs is optimistic not just about a single model release but about the valuation recovery space based on factors such as M3 call volume, API gross margins, M3 Pro cost efficiency, H3 multimodal new products, and the potential eligibility for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect in August.
    Target Price of HKD 860, Betting on Valuation Discount Narrowing ---------------------
    Goldman Sachs has set a 12-month target price of HKD 860 for MiniMax, based on a DCF valuation method. Since some DCF details and revenue forecasts mainly come from sell-side reports, they cannot be directly considered as the company's realized performance, but the main line of the report is clear: MiniMax needs to prove that model call volume, commercial revenue, and inference costs can improve simultaneously.

    The valuation comparison is the strongest numerical hook in this report. MiniMax currently has a market capitalization of about USD 8 billion to USD 8.5 billion. In contrast, according to previous reports from the South China Morning Post, Kuaishou's Kling AI is nearing completion of a new round of financing, with a post-investment valuation of about USD 18 billion. MiniMax does not lack attention in the Chinese video generation and multimodal model arena, but the secondary market still values it lower than some similar assets' financing valuations.

    Goldman Sachs' report also mentioned that Zhizhu/Z.ai's recent valuation is about USD 71 billion. This figure has limited publicly verifiable sources and is more suitable as a sell-side comparison metric rather than a market-recognized valuation. For investors, what really matters is not how high the peer valuations are, but whether MiniMax can narrow the discount through revenue and new product realization.

    After Trillion-Level Tokens, It's About Making Money on Each Call

    Large model companies are now competing not only on model capabilities but also on the cost per token.

    MiniMax's management stated at the analyst meeting at their Shanghai headquarters on July 23 that the company's current primary goal is to ensure that each model pursues the best cost-performance ratio. The M3 model currently processes trillions of tokens daily, and the revenue from the open platform/API has already achieved a "healthy gross margin." Under the current pricing, the company's goal is to improve inference efficiency and ultimately achieve a high double-digit gross margin for this part of the business.

    This is crucial for investors. The larger the AI model call volume, the more inference costs determine revenue quality. Over the past two years, the large model industry has often seen improvements in model capabilities and increases in call volume, but price wars and inference costs have depressed profit quality. MiniMax needs to prove that while call volume expands, API prices remain competitive, and gross margins are not eroded.

    M3 Pro is a more direct verification point for the second half of the year. Public reports and the report's metrics indicate that this model is expected to launch between September and October 2026, with a parameter scale of about 2.7 trillion, approaching the 3 trillion level. The technical directions mentioned by MiniMax include sparse attention mechanisms, activation parameter optimization, and KV Cache optimization.

    These technical terms translate to the business level as whether the model can reduce ineffective calculations, lower memory and cache pressure for the same user request, making API services cheaper and faster while maintaining profit margins.

    Self-Operated Computing Power Brings Cost Advantages but Also Cash Pressure

    MiniMax's cost story comes not only from model architecture but also from computing power infrastructure.

    Management stated that the company has increased its self-operated computing power construction early on, expanding resources through domestic and foreign acquisitions and long-term leases, believing that the acquisition of related resources occurred when GPU and AI server long-term lease prices were significantly lower than current levels. This statement mainly comes from management communication and sell-side reports and still needs to be validated with subsequent financial data.

    For AI model companies, computing power is not a one-time investment when training large models. After the growth of inference calls, the efficiency of computing power usage will directly affect API gross margins. If self-operated AI infrastructure experience can improve cluster utilization, it indeed helps to lower unit inference costs.

    However, this advantage also has a downside. Self-operated computing power means heavier capital expenditures and cash burn. If revenue growth does not meet expectations, or if model call volume cannot continue to expand, locking in resources early may turn from a cost advantage into a burden. MiniMax needs to convince the market that its valuation is underestimated, and it cannot just talk about "cheap computing power" but must also show improvements in revenue, gross margins, and cash flow.


    ![](https://public.chaincatcher.info/upload/news/202607/8be2951925ac4ae495a316d4603d5855.png)
    > MiniMax Income Statement Summary: Goldman Sachs expects revenue to rise from USD 79 million in 2025 to USD 300 million in 2026, continuing to expand in 2027 and 2028.

    H3 Not Just for Video, Multimodal to Become a New Entry Point

    In addition to M3 Pro, another catalyst that Goldman Sachs values for the second half of the year is the H3 model.

    H3 is no longer just a continuation of the Conch AI video generation model but a multimodal model capable of understanding various inputs such as text, images, video, audio, and music, and outputting video, image, and audio content based on user prompts. Several media outlets have reported that this model is in the final stages of release preparation.

    The importance of this to MiniMax lies in its potential to expand the company from a "video generation product" to a broader multimodal entry point. For users, the value of a multimodal model is not just generating a video but enabling continuous understanding and conversion between text, images, sounds, and videos. For commercialization, this means more paid scenarios and higher usage frequency.

    H3 still has two uncertainties. First, can it provide a sufficiently strong alternative experience beyond existing video generation products? Second, can it bring sustainable ARR growth rather than just traffic during the initial release phase?

    Multimodal is also a field with more concentrated regulatory and content risks. The stronger the capabilities of video, audio, and image generation, the greater the pressure from copyright, portrait rights, deep forgery, platform review, and content safety. Goldman Sachs lists IP and content generation risks as key risks for this reason.

    -- Price

    --

    Stock Price Recovery Requires New Products and Revenue Realization

    MiniMax has another capital market event in the second half of the year. Goldman Sachs expects that the company may qualify for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect in August 2026. If it ultimately enters the investment scope for southbound funds, the potential investor base will expand, and liquidity and market attention may also increase.

    However, the Hong Kong Stock Connect qualification itself cannot replace business realization, and final inclusion still needs to be based on the relevant lists from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange. For MiniMax's stock price to truly approach Goldman Sachs' target price, several results need to support it: M3 call volume continues to grow, API gross margins maintain improvement, M3 Pro launches as planned and demonstrates cost efficiency, and the H3 multimodal model brings new demand, with ARR continuing to climb.

    The risks are also direct. Global competition for foundational models is still intensifying, and model performance may not meet expectations. Profit visibility may be slower than the market expects. Commercialization capabilities, cash burn, and self-funding capabilities need to be continuously monitored. The intensifying tech competition between China and the U.S. may also affect computing power, customers, and overseas expansion.

    Goldman Sachs' report does not throw out the statement that "MiniMax must be worth HKD 860" but rather poses a more realistic question: In a situation where the valuation differentiation among Chinese AI model companies is already significant, can MiniMax prove that its current market capitalization of USD 8 billion to USD 8.5 billion is too low by achieving lower inference costs, faster new product rhythms, and clearer ARR growth?

    This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.

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    Contents

    After Trillion-Level Tokens, It's About Making Money on Each Call
    Self-Operated Computing Power Brings Cost Advantages but Also Cash Pressure
    H3 Not Just for Video, Multimodal to Become a New Entry Point
    NOW
    Stock Price Recovery Requires New Products and Revenue Realization

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