「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Agent's Long Essay Rebuts Bear Market View: Threefold Bearish Conditions Needed for Confirmation of Bear Market, Current Investor Structure Differs Significantly from 2022
BlockBeats News, January 19, "BTC OG Whale Insider" agent Garrett Jin posted a long article on social media, stating that recently some analysts have compared the current Bitcoin price trend to the 2022 market (bearish). There may be some similarities in the short-term price pattern. However, if we look at the long-term picture, this comparison appears completely absurd.
Garrett Jin explained that the current macro background is completely opposite to that of 2022. At the beginning of 2022, the primary goal of capital was risk aversion, and Bitcoin at that time exhibited a distribution structure at a high point in a tightening cycle. In the current macro environment, the U.S. liquidity index has broken through both short-term and long-term downtrend lines, indicating the emergence of a new uptrend.
In addition, between 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin showed a weekly chart M-top structure, which is usually associated with a long-term cycle top and tends to suppress prices for a long time. However, there is currently a breakout of the weekly chart uptrend channel. From a probability perspective, it now looks more like a bear trap before returning to the channel. Although the possibility of a bear market cannot be ruled out, it must be noted that the $80,850 to $62,000 range has undergone sufficient consolidation and turnover. The previous chip digestion process has provided a better risk-return ratio for long positions: the upside potential is significantly greater than the downside risk.
To restart a bear market, there needs to be a new inflationary shock or a major geopolitical crisis comparable to 2022; central banks restarting rate hikes or asset balance sheet quant tightening; and the price decisively and sustainably falling below $80,850. Before these conditions are met, it is too early to assert a structural bear market, as it is more speculative than analytical.
The biggest difference in the Bitcoin investor structure between the current (early 2026) and 2022 is the shift from retail-dominated, high-leverage speculation to institutional-led, structural long-term holding. In 2022, Bitcoin went through a typical "crypto-native bear market" driven by retail panic selling and cascading liquidations. Bitcoin has now entered a much more mature institutionalized era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked-up supply, and institutional-level volatility.
You may also like
Why Bitcoin Is Falling Now: The Real Reasons Behind BTC's Crash & WEEX's Smart Profit Playbook
Bitcoin's ongoing crash explained: Discover the 5 hidden triggers behind BTC's plunge & how WEEX's Auto Earn and Trade to Earn strategies help traders profit from crypto market volatility.

Wall Street's Hottest Trades See Exodus

Vitalik Discusses Ethereum Scaling Path, Circle Announces Partnership with Polymarket, What's the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?

Believing in the Capital Markets - The Essence and Core Value of Cryptocurrency

Polymarket's 'Weatherman': Predict Temperature, Win Million-Dollar Payout
$15K+ Profits: The 4 AI Trading Secrets WEEX Hackathon Prelim Winners Used to Dominate Volatile Crypto Markets
How WEEX Hackathon's top AI trading strategies made $15K+ in crypto markets: 4 proven rules for ETH/BTC trading, market structure analysis, and risk management in volatile conditions.

A nearly 20% one-day plunge, how long has it been since you last saw a $60,000 Bitcoin?

Raoul Pal: I've seen every single panic, and they are never the end.

Key Market Information Discrepancy on February 6th - A Must-Read! | Alpha Morning Report

2026 Crypto Industry's First Snowfall

The Harsh Reality Behind the $26 Billion Crypto Liquidation: Liquidity Is Killing the Market

Why Is Gold, US Stocks, Bitcoin All Falling?

Key Market Intelligence for February 5th, how much did you miss out on?

Wintermute: By 2026, crypto had gradually become the settlement layer of the Internet economy

Tether Q4 2025 Report: USDT Market Cap Nears $190 Billion, Multiple Metrics Reach All-Time Highs

Kyle Samani's about-face, one of the biggest believers in web3, has also left the industry

Bhutan Quietly Sells Over $22M in Bitcoin, Drawing Speculation Over Possible Moves
Key Takeaways Bhutan has transferred over $22 million in Bitcoin from sovereign wallets in the past week. The…

BitMine Endures a $7B Unrealized Loss as Ethereum Dips Below $2,100
Key Takeaways BitMine is facing a significant financial challenge with an unrealized loss of over $7 billion in…
Why Bitcoin Is Falling Now: The Real Reasons Behind BTC's Crash & WEEX's Smart Profit Playbook
Bitcoin's ongoing crash explained: Discover the 5 hidden triggers behind BTC's plunge & how WEEX's Auto Earn and Trade to Earn strategies help traders profit from crypto market volatility.
Wall Street's Hottest Trades See Exodus
Vitalik Discusses Ethereum Scaling Path, Circle Announces Partnership with Polymarket, What's the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?
Believing in the Capital Markets - The Essence and Core Value of Cryptocurrency
Polymarket's 'Weatherman': Predict Temperature, Win Million-Dollar Payout
$15K+ Profits: The 4 AI Trading Secrets WEEX Hackathon Prelim Winners Used to Dominate Volatile Crypto Markets
How WEEX Hackathon's top AI trading strategies made $15K+ in crypto markets: 4 proven rules for ETH/BTC trading, market structure analysis, and risk management in volatile conditions.