BIT Analyst Says Fed's Pause on Rate Hikes Could Boost Q4 Crypto Market

The BIT "On Target" weekly report highlights two key catalysts currently affecting the market: the U.S. debt surpassing $40 trillion and U.S. Treasury yields approaching 5%. Since July 24, Bitcoin has risen by 22%, while gold has increased by 9.4%. Macroeconomic cycle models indicate that the market is in the first phase of cyclical re-inflation, typically accompanied by a weakening dollar and rising commodity prices. Historical data shows that during this phase, the annualized return on U.S. stocks is approximately 29%, gold's annualized return is about 47%, and Bitcoin's annualized return is around 73%. Additionally, from 2020 to 2026, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of U.S. debt has reached 8.59%, while the M2 money supply CAGR is 6.02%, both exceeding the CPI's 4.11%. Long-term inflationary pressures continue to accumulate, supporting the allocation logic for gold and Bitcoin.

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