Benjamin Cowen Predicts Bitcoin 69-73 Days From Cycle Bottom

Benjamin Cowen estimates Bitcoin (BTC) is 69 to 73 days away from its next cycle bottom, based on a current cycle-day count of 1,363. The previous two cycles bottomed on days 1,432 and 1,436, suggesting a projected low around October 2026. Cowen's day-count model is widely referenced by traders, as he has historically noted that the current cycle peaked within a week of the prior cycles. He maintains that Bitcoin topped within one week of historical peaks, despite claims that the four-year cycle is no longer valid. Cowen has identified August and September as historically weak months for Bitcoin, with an average decline of about 10% in August during midterm election years, followed by smaller losses in September. However, some analysts, including Fidelity, argue that new lows in one-year volatility have emerged after Bitcoin's record high, a pattern not seen in earlier cycles. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan suggests that spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury demand have diminished the traditional halving cycle. Grayscale's 2026 outlook supports this view, citing consistent ETF inflows as evidence that the boom-bust pattern may not apply as it once did. Cowen's recent research indicates that the price floor has remained stable across four cycles, despite flattened blow-off tops, leaving the outcome uncertain until October.

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