BCRA reserves increased by $112 million, while purchases remained very limited

The international reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA) rose again this Monday, August 10, although the improvement was more due to the valuation effect than to purchases in the official market. Specifically, the gross stock increased by $112 million and ended at $49.567 billion, remaining above $49 billion after the rebound recorded at the end of last week.

The main contribution came again from gold, which rose by 1.13% and is estimated to have added about $100 million to the Central Bank's holdings. Additionally, some currencies in the basket also helped, as the yuan appreciated by 0.02% and the pound rose by 0.11%, although the global strengthening of the dollar, with a 0.28% increase in the DXY, pressured the euro and the yen.

Thus, the session left a favorable signal for the stock of reserves, but did not change the underlying problem of the month: the accumulation from purchases remains weak. The BCRA acquired only $13 million in a day with a traded volume of $363 million, absorbing about 4% of the total negotiated in the official market.

With this result, the net purchases for August rose to $124 million, while the accumulated purchases in 2026 reached $13.451 billion. However, the daily average for the month stood at $21 million, far below the $103 million in July, the $68 million in June, and the $137 million in May. Therefore, although the monetary authority has recorded nine sessions with a positive balance, the pace of intervention remains depressed.

On the exchange front, the wholesale dollar fell by 0.23% and closed at $1,496 for sale. According to Gustavo Quintana, the currency started the week with a decline of three pesos compared to Friday, in a session with very low volume and a slight selling trend.

The analyst noted that the highs were recorded near the beginning of the session, when the wholesale rate touched $1,500 again. However, the supply of currencies gained presence during the session and pushed prices away from that level, bringing them down to a minimum of $1,495.50 in the last segment.

Quintana emphasized that the second consecutive drop in the wholesale rate maintained the downward correction and brought the quotation closer to the values of the previous Monday. He also stated that the official strategy of remaining active in the shorter terms of the futures market continues to limit the evolution of the dollar, which for now shows a defined ceiling around $1,500.

Among the alternative dollars, the MEP rose by 0.10% to $1,526.26, while the cash with settlement increased by 0.40% to $1,588.86. Meanwhile, the blue dollar gained 0.36% and closed at $1,535. With these values, the gap between the blue and the wholesale dollar stood at 2.61%, while the exchange ended at 4.10%.

In futures, the curve operated with generalized declines. Thus, August fell by 0.30%, September decreased by 0.26%, December dropped by 0.18%, and the 2027 contracts also mostly closed in negative territory. On average, the overall variation was -0.19%.

With these movements, the implied rate for August stood at 1.60% monthly, equivalent to 19.14% annualized. Meanwhile, in pesos, the TAMAR rose from 23.25% to 23.38%, while the BADLAR fell from 22% to 21.50%.

According to PPI, last week the dilemma between keeping the dollar stable or avoiding greater tension in rates was once again exposed. The brokerage firm noted that, although the Treasury had to absorb $3.75 trillion after the last auction, those funds would have temporarily remained in the Banco Nación to avoid a greater adjustment of banking liquidity.

This maneuver is precisely the focus of the criminal complaint that Deputy Marcela Pagano filed against Minister Luis Caputo and the head of the Central Bank, Santiago Bausili. The accusation claims that about four trillion pesos (the excess liquidity generated after raising $12.21 trillion in the auction on July 29) remained unregistered and without public traceability for several days within the Treasury accounts.

When consulted about this, Bausili downplayed the missing funds, stating that the money had not disappeared and that "they are somewhere", a response that the complainant considered insufficient and which, according to the filing, reveals a management scheme that makes it impossible to track and control public finances.

Nevertheless, the market had already prepared for a significant absorption of pesos and that pressured the curve in local currency. According to PPI, fixed-rate yields rose since the last auction and established the idea that the Treasury may adopt a more contractionary stance again, which generates weakness in peso-denominated instruments.

In parallel, it was estimated that the BCRA sold about $391 million in dollar-linked securities between Monday, August 3, and Tuesday, August 4, with $230 million on the first day and $161 million on the second. This coverage offer helped contain the exchange rate near $1,500, but at the same time absorbed pesos and deepened liquidity restrictions.

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