Analyst unveils MicroStrategy could qualify for S&P 500 soon

A market commentator has stirred fresh excitement around MicroStrategy, now branded as Strategy, predicting that the second-quarter earnings could push the company into S&P 500 eligibility.Q2 is likely going to be the big blow out quarter on Earnings for $MSTR The quarter ends on 6/30 (52 days from now)The earnings release call will likely be on August 5th / 6th Technically Qualifying $MSTR for the S&P500 The market will react surprised & bewildered...— Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) May 9, 2025“Q2 is likely going to be the big blowout quarter on earnings for $MSTR,” said analyst Jeff Walton on X. “The quarter ends on 6/30... the earnings call will likely be on August 5th or 6th... Technically qualifying $MSTR for the S&P 500.” Walton believes the market will react with “surprise and bewilderment,” causing capital to shift toward MSTR and Bitcoin alike.According to Walton, volatility and Bitcoin prices will both surge, with treasury-heavy Bitcoin companies adding to the momentum. “We are witnessing history,” he added. “Position yourself accordingly.”The forecast aligns with Strategy’s explosive first-quarter performance. As of May 1, the firm reported a $5.8 billion year-to-date gain on its Bitcoin holdings, while raising its BTC yield target to 25% and gain target to $15 billion. A record-breaking $21 billion stock offering in the first-quarter allowed Strategy to add more than 301,000 BTC to its reserves.Despite a temporary paper loss when Bitcoin fell to $82,445 by the end of the first quarter, Strategy notes prices have since rebounded to $97,000, creating a potential $8 billion unrealized gain heading into the second quarter. Its cash position also grew to $60.3 million, up from $38.1 million in late 2024.The company is also benefiting from recent accounting rules allowing Bitcoin’s fair market value to be better reflected in earnings. At the start of the year, Strategy added $12.7 billion to retained earnings, thanks to Bitcoin revaluation.MSTR shares are up 8.34% in five days and more than 70 public companies now hold Bitcoin in their treasuries.Bitcoin was trading at $104,769, up 1.1% in the past 24 hours, according to Kraken’s price feeds.How a firm qualifies for the S&P 500To qualify for inclusion in the S&P 500, a company must meet several strict criteria set by S&P Dow Jones Indices. First, it must be a U.S.-based company with a market capitalization of at least $14.5 billion (as of 2024), and it must be listed on either the NYSE, NASDAQ, or Cboe BZX Exchange. The company must also have positive earnings over the most recent quarter and the sum of its trailing four consecutive quarters, ensuring profitability and financial health. Additionally, at least 50% of the company’s stock must be available to the public (public float), with adequate trading volume and liquidity.Beyond the financial requirements, the company must also represent a major sector of the U.S. economy. An index committee ultimately selects firms to ensure sector balance and reflects the overall market. Inclusion is not automatic even if a company meets all criteria — the committee evaluates broader factors like corporate governance, historical stability, and the ability to represent the S&P 500’s overall investment profile. This ensures that the index remains a credible benchmark for U.S. large-cap equities.