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Analysis: The conclusion of the government shutdown did not eliminate uncertainty, as the US Debt Volatility Index surged to a one-month high.
BlockBeats News, November 13: The U.S. Treasury bond price remained relatively stable, but the volatility index indicates that there may be significant fluctuations in the next few days, following the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remains strong, reporting 4.08% on Thursday. However, according to swap data linked to the policy meeting date, there is a divergence in the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. Meanwhile, after touching a four-year low recently, the ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, has surged to its highest level in a month, suggesting that the upcoming release of a large amount of economic data by the government may prompt market action.
Investors in this $30 trillion market have been eagerly awaiting the resumption of government economic reports to gain insight into where the Fed will take rates at its final meeting of the year. Michiel Tukker, Senior European Rates Strategist at Rabobank, said that as the market is not yet fully certain about the Fed's next steps, any new inflation and employment data could drive front-end curve movements. (FX168)
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